Market Commentary:
March will be remembered for surging diesel prices. Underlying linehaul rates have stabilized in line with seasonal trends, though overall baseline conditions remain elevated, reflecting market tightness.
As we move into spring, early indicators, particularly the start of the California produce season, along with ongoing driver restrictions and capacity exits, point to inflationary pressure on linehaul rates for the rest of March and into the spring.
Market Commentary:
The 2026 rate index is tracking 20–30 basis points above the five-year average, following a steady climb in the second half of 2025. This signals a potential market inflection, driven by the convergence of intensified regulatory enforcement, increased CDL audits, and sustained carrier attrition after years of margin compression, collectively tightening market capacity.
Weather disruptions impacted Q1 at various points; however, the broader market appears to have undergone a structural shift. While the typical seasonal lull placed downward pressure on rates, the decline was far less pronounced than in recent years. As the spring produce season begins and demand accelerates, along with a shrinking driver pool (-20k non domicile on March 6th), upward pressure on rates is expected to return.
Compounding this dynamic is the rapid rise in diesel prices, which is adding further cost pressure, particularly in the spot market, where fuel cost is picked up in the all-in rate and not be a surcharge.
Overall, the market is shaping up for a highly volatile spring freight environment.
Lane Rate Progression
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